Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco spoiled everyone last season. As rookie quarterbacks in the NFL, all they did was step in, start all 16 games and lead their teams to the playoffs.
If they could do it, what's to say the top quarterback prospects in this year's NFL draft ? Georgia's Matthew Stafford, Southern California's Mark Sanchez and Kansas State's Josh Freeman ? can't do the same?
All three have strong arms, strong wills and produced big numbers in college.
The one difference between the elite quarterbacks in this class and last year is experience.
Ryan and Flacco were seniors. Fifth-year seniors, in fact. Stafford and Freeman are true juniors, Sanchez is a redshirt junior. And that could be a major factor in their immediate ? and even ultimate ? success or failure in the NFL.
"There's a big adjustment, especially at the quarterback position,"
said Washington coach Jim Zorn, a former NFL quarterback. "There's a lot to be responsible for. There's a lot to handle. There's a way you have to present yourself. As a young guy, it's hard to come into a bunch of 30-year-old guys, and say, 'I'm in charge now.' And they look at you like c?"
Of the 14 quarterbacks taken in the first round in the last five drafts, five have been juniors. Only Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger, the 11th overall selection in 2004, has justified that pick with two Super Bowl wins.
The verdict is still out on Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (2005). Tennessee's Vince Young (2006) and Oakland's JaMarcus Russell (2006) have fallen short of expectations, while San Francisco's Alex Smith, the first overall pick in 2005, appears to be a bust.
But there's little question that Eli Manning and Philip Rivers, who were traded for each other after Manning was taken first by San Diego and Rivers fourth by the New York Giants in the 2004 draft, were more prepared as seniors than had they come out a year earlier.
Rivers sat on the bench as a rookie with the Chargers while Manning was an understudy to Kurt Warner for half a season with the Giants. The year before, Carson Palmer, a Heisman Trophy winner, fifth-year senior at Southern California and the first overall pick in the 2003 draft, did not take a snap as a rookie with Cincinnati.
So imagine the odds of a junior making it quickly in the NFL.
"It's hard to lump all of them together,"
said New Orleans coach Sean Payton. "There have been some good juniors coming out at quarterback who have gone on to be successful. You have to treat them separately in each case."
"If it's a running back, sometimes it's a good thing (to be an underclassman) with the amount of carries they have, but at the quarterback position, it's how they play when their team is behind. Do they have the skill set you're looking for? That might vary per club, depending on what each team wants."
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Stafford, projected by many to be taken as the first overall pick by Detroit, has an answer for those worried about the risk of taking an underclassman at quarterback.
"I played in 39 football games in college,"
said Stafford, a three-year starter. "That's a lot of football games, probably more than some seniors have played in. c"
"Obviously I have a lot to learn. c But I understand what it takes to prepare and get ready to play early. c I played in the SEC, a tough conference. c I've got a little bit of a taste of what it's like, I think."
So does Sanchez, despite starting just one year at USC, where his coach, Pete Carroll, thought Sanchez would have benefited from another year of college football.
"I started 16 games,"
Sanchez said, "played in practice every day with a pro-style offense against a pro-style defense with guys c who are in the league and are going to be in the league. c"
"I've been in a big city, a large media market. We've played in the Rose Bowl, in nationally televised games, and I'm ready for this league."
Still, NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock is not so sure that taking junior quarterbacks high in the first round is worth the risk.
"I keep trying to warn people that the Matt Ryan-Joe Flacco thing is an anomaly,"
Mayock said. "You haven't seen that maybe ever in the NFL ? two rookie quarterbacks like that. They were both fifth-year players. There is a track record on tape, there is a track record off the field, work ethic. You can track it better, and more accurately. When you're talking about Matthew Stafford, he just turned 21, he has three years as a starter in the SEC, which is impressive."
"Stafford has elite arm strength. c "
"To me, arm strength rates fourth or fifth on how I rank quarterbacks. He has some issues with pocket awareness, feeling the rush, not dropping his eyes down and giving up on a play. Being able to slide laterally, find lanes and throw the football. That's part of being a young quarterback."
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Unlike Stafford, who led Georgia to three bowl wins and Sanchez, whose team won the Rose Bowl, Freeman didn't enjoy much team success in three years at Kansas State. Had Freeman stayed in Manhattan another year, he might have been a top-five prospect in 2010 alongside Oklahoma's Sam Bradford instead of a top-15 pick this year.
But with Bradford, Texas' Colt McCoy and Florida's Tim Tebow electing to stay for their senior seasons and a coaching transition at Kansas State, Freeman felt the time was right to come out now.
"The negative is: He is erratic,"
ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said of Freeman. "There were games when he played like the No. 1 pick overall; there were games when he played like a fourth-round pick."
"But when you're that big and have that kind of arm, and you didn't have a great team around you, somebody has to take you in the first round, especially when there's no other quarterback going until the fifth round."
